Putin’s strategy on mediation of Israel-US and Iran conflicts and the Iran nuclear issue

On today’s international political stage, the conflict between Israel-US and Iran and the Iranian nuclear have attracted widespread attention. Putin’s strategy for conflict mediation and resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, based on Russia’s geopolitical interests and the international strategic pattern, shows different characteristics from Trump’s.

1. Russia’s Willingness and Limitations for Mediation
   Priority to maintain the strategic collaboration with Iran
   In recent, the relationship between Russia and Iran has been deepening, and the two sides have completed the consultation on the text of the agreement on the comprehensive strategic partnership and plan to sign it demonstrating their determination to strengthen the political and military alliance. After Iran was attacked, Putin condemned Israel within 24 hours and expressed his political support and strategic collaboration with Iran. However Putin did not commit to direct military intervention, which reflects his restrained action and is a result of Russia’s balancing its own interests, not wanting Iran to be overly bullied nor wanting to be overly involved in the complex conflicts in the Middle East. In addition, Alaqi’s visit to Russia to hand over a personal letter from Khamene, and the exchange of topics such as the US-Iran negotiations, show that Russia focuses on exchanging interests with Iran, rather than taking the initiative to play an active role in.

Fundamental contradiction with the US position
During the US-Iran negotiations, Putin consulted with China and placed the Middle East issue in the framework of the “-US united front”. The Russian Foreign Ministry supported Iran’s “right to retain a response”, which conflicted with Trump’s tough stance of “unconditional surrender. This difference in stance makes Russia lack a neutral basis for mediation and it is difficult for Russia to intervene in conflict mediation in a neutral posture.

Cautious practical
The Iranian ambassador to Russia criticized the “spectators”, and Russian Duma members refused military aid on the grounds of “no Iranian soldiers on the battlefield in Ukraine”, Russia’s bottom line of avoiding direct involvement in the conflict. Russia, under pressure from the battlefield in Ukraine, does not want to be distracted by excessive involvement in Middle East conflicts divert military and strategic resources, and it is cautious in its military cooperation with Iran and its involvement in conflicts.

2. Essential Differences with Trump’s Model
   ifferent goals
   Trump’s goal of mediation is to show his personal diplomatic influence, to promote foreign affairs with his personal image to show his capabilities. Putin’s potential goal is consolidate the anti-Western camp and contain the US, by supporting anti-Western forces such as Iran, to form a drag on the US’s strategic layout in Middle East, and to maintain his own geopolitical position.

Differences in means
Trump directly pressures allies, such as demanding concessions from Ukraine. Putin tends to coordinateaterally, relying on multilateral platforms such as the SCO to form an influence network with multiple countries, to promote problem solving, to reduce his own pressure and responsibility, and achieve broad cooperation.

Different risk-taking
Trump is willing to break through the traditional diplomatic framework and take aggressive diplomatic measures. Putin strictly avoids military involvement, avoids military intervention, and reduces the risk and uncertainty of military conflict to safeguard his own interests.

Differences in core interests
Trump’s core concern is the US priority policy which maintains the interests of the US and its international dominance. Putin’s core concern is to undermine the dominance of the US and Israel in the Middle East, to weaken the influence the US and Israel through mediation of conflicts, and to enhance his own voice in the Middle East.

3. Key Constraints
   The complexity of the Iranian nuclear issue
   Iranian nuclear issue is complex, and Iran regards its nuclear facilities as the bottom line of national security. Israel systematically strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the contradictions between the two are irreconcilable. Although Russia supports a return to negotiations, it lacks the ability to force Israel to stop, and its statements have limited actual effect.