Can Russia and Ukraine achieve a temporary ceasefire? — Analysis of the future development trend of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the 30-day temporary ceasefire agreement reached by the United States Ukraine shows Russia’s basic position on the future trend of the Russo-Ukrainian war and peace negotiations. Putin did not directly reject the agreement, but first expressed gratitude the concern of all parties for an early ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian war, expressed respect for the active mediation of the United States, especially President Trump, but expressed concern about the reality of achieving a temporary ceasefire, so the next negotiations between the United States and Russia on the Russo-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire agreement and the between Putin and Trump will discuss these issues and finally reach a consensus.

Russia’s consistent position on the Russo-Ukrainian war is: not against afire, but a ceasefire agreement must resolve the fundamental issues that caused the conflict, while reaching a permanent peace agreement. However, for U.S. President Trump’s demand the two sides reach a temporary ceasefire agreement first and then talk about a permanent peace agreement, Russia will not completely reject it, but will reach a consensus with the United States, and Europe through negotiations. Because if the two sides reach a temporary ceasefire agreement first, at least it wins time for reaching a permanent peace agreement. Both sides can also temporarily casualties, which is beneficial to both sides.

The series of concerns that Russia has about the temporary ceasefire include whether and how Ukraine withdraws from Kursk, how delimit the ceasefire line, who will supervise the ceasefire, whether a buffer zone will be established on the Russo-Ukrainian border, whether the buffer zone to be dispatched with peacekeeping forces, and the composition of the peacekeeping forces, etc. There are many possibilities for the form of temporary ceasefire, on the premise that as as U.S. President Trump insists on stopping the fire first and then negotiating, and Russia and Ukraine both recognize and accept his proposition, then there is hope for a temporary cease between Russia and Ukraine. One possibility is that if Russia and Ukraine both agree to establish a buffer zone on the Russo-Ukrainian border during the temporary ceasefire period, Russia clearly opposes NATO or Europe dispatching peacekeeping forces into the buffer zone, in fact, Russia wants the United Nations to supervise the ceasefire and dispatch peacekeeping forces It is not yet known whether Ukraine and the United States will agree to the involvement of the United Nations. If they do, it is most beneficial for Russia and Ukraine to finally reach permanent peace agreement.

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