11.6 thousand square kilometers have been captured! Russia occupies 19.2% of Ukraine’s territory, but the offensive has stalled

1. Current Status of Territorial Control and Strategic Value
   According to data from the International Crisis Group (ICG) and United Nations, as of October 2023, Russia effectively controls about 116,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (19.2% of country’s total land area), mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern regions. The specific distribution is as follows:

Donbas Region

Donetsk Obl: 73% of the region is controlled (including territories occupied since the 2014 conflict)
Luhansk Oblast: 99% the region is under Russian military control
Strategic Significance: Core industrial area of Ukraine, with a concentration of heavy industries such as coal and steel
Southern Front
Kherson Oblast: 75% of the region is controlled, key node of the strategic Dnipro corridor
Zaporizhzhia Obl: 74% of the region is controlled, location of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant
Economic Value: Control of the agricultural belt along the Black Sea and portsOther Regions

Kharkiv Oblast: 4% (1,299 square kilometers)
Sumy Oblast: 1% (25 square kilometers)
Geostrategic Value: Formation of a military buffer zone in the northeast of Ukraine

2. Multidimensional Causes of Stalled Military OperationsEscalation of Military Confrontation Intensity

Ukrainian military equipment modernization: NATO-supplied NASAMS air defense system has an interception efficiency of 7% (NATO assessment in 2023)
Application of asymmetric tactics: Urban street fighting has reduced the daily advance speed of the Russian army to 1/ of the early 2022 level
Intelligence confrontation: The Ukrainian military has a 68% early warning rate through open-source intelligence (OSINT) ( from the American think tank New America Security Center)
Chain Effect of International Sanctions

Energy sector: Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe have decreased by 72 compared to 2021 (Eurostat)
Military industry restrictions: Western sanctions have led to a sharp decrease of 89% in the import of key for Russian drones (data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)
Financial pressure: The scale of Russia’s frozen foreign exchange reserves reaches USD 300 billion ( from the Bank for International Settlements)
Challenges in the governance of occupied territories

Investment in people’s livelihood: Russia needs to invest about USD billion per month to maintain basic services in the occupied territories (estimated by the World Bank)
Demographic structure: The outflow of about 2 million residents has led to an of the labor shortage (Ukrainian State Statistics Service)
Administrative integration: The legitimacy of the “referendum” in the four regions to join Russia sparked widespread international resistance

III. Multi-dimensional Impact of the Conflict Stalemate
Ukrainian State System Reconstruction

E Costs: Territorial losses lead to an average annual GDP decline of 12% (IMF forecast)
Defensive Transformation: 12 Ukrainian brigade-level complete NATO standard reorganization in 2023
International Demands: Joining EU negotiations involve 352 reform bills (EU Commission document)
Russia’ Strategic Resource Rebalancing

Military Consumption: Monthly ammunition expenditure of about $1.5 billion (leaked internal documents of the Russian Ministry of Defense)
E Adjustment: GDP growth forecast for 2023 revised down to -2.3% (data from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development)
Geopolitical Game:eleration of military integration with Belarus (40% increase in the frequency of joint military exercises in 2023)
Evolution of Regional Security Architecture

Refuge Crisis: Over 8 million refugees received cumulatively (data from the UN Refugee Agency)
Military Standoff: NATO’s eastern wing garrison increased to 0,000 troops (statement by the NATO Secretary-General in 2023)
Energy Game: The Nord Stream pipeline explosion incident led to an increase in volatility of European energy prices by 37% (Bloomberg analysis)
IV. Multi-dimensional Judgment of the Prospects of the Conflict
Military Balance

Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive needs to break through three lines of defense of the Russian army:
First line: A depth of 15 kilometers minefields and obstacles
Second line: Covered by a swarm of drone defense systems
Third line: Rapid reinforcement by mobile armored forces
Negotiation Chip Game
Russian demands: Recognition of the current situation of the four states security guarantee agreement
Ukrainian bottom line: Return to the 1991 borders war reations
Intermediary role: Turkey facilitated five rounds of grain corridor negotiations in 2023
Impact on the International Order

United Nations reform: The frequency the Security Council’s use of the veto power reached a new high since the Cold War
Multi-polarization acceleration: BRICS expansion to 15 countries (plan for2024)
Technological decoupling: The Western control list for technology exports to Russia expanded to 12,000 items
Conclusion: Complex Equation Conflict Governance
The current situation presents a composite pattern of “military stalemate-economic consumption-political game.” The solution path needs to break through the traditional framework and build a three-dimensional solution that includes military buffer zones, economic reconstruction funds, and cultural dialogue mechanisms. The international community should strengthen the crisis management mechanism to avoid the spill of conflicts triggering a larger-scale security crisis.