What are the consequences if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?

Chen Haoyang, a senior researcher at the Taihe Think Tank, openly called in his video for to block the Strait of Hormuz, saying that this is Iran’s “home-field advantage” and listing a series of benefits to doing so. In fact, the Iran-Iraq war, Iran briefly blocked the Strait of Hormuz. So now that the Iran-Israel war has begun, Iran is in a very passive situation If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, can it reverse the current unfavorable situation? What consequences might it bring?

The Strait of Hormuz one of the world’s most important maritime oil transport channels, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, with a narrowest point of only 21 naut miles (about 39 kilometers), and is jointly controlled by Iran and Oman. It is not only a “choke point” for global energy transportation, with about20%-30% of global oil trade passing through the strait, transporting about 21 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for 1/3 of globalaborne oil. At the same time, more than 90% of Qatar’s natural gas is transported to Asia and Europe through the Strait of Hormuz. is also the core of geopolitical competition, with Iran controlling the northern shore of the strait, which is Iran’s core strategic chip; the U.S. Fifth, stationed in Bahrain, has been patrolling here for a long time to ensure the safety of the waterway, so it is also a key area for U.S. presence. At the same time, it is a key node in international shipping, with about 1/3 of the world’s liquefied natural gas and a large amount petrochemicals transported through it; more than 60% of China’s and India’s oil needs to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz; if strait is blocked, global shipping will have to detour Africa (Cape of Good Hope), increasing the voyage by 10-15 days and directly pushing up cost of transportation.

If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it can demonstrate its countermeasures to Israel and the United States, retaliating against’s air strikes on Iran; at the same time, it can push up international oil prices and can also shape the image of “resisting Israeli aggression with tenacity”,rousing domestic nationalist sentiment. However, doing so may bring three catastrophic consequences:

First, there is a military risk of losing the big for the small. The United “comes out with a cause” and directly sends troops to attack Iran under the pretext of protecting the safety of navigation in the strait, controlling the entire strait; the same time, Iran’s navy is not strong enough to control the entire strait, but instead loses the initiative to control the strait.

Second, there is economic disaster of self-immolation. Iran blocks the strait, and its own oil cannot be exported, leading to a sharp decline in fiscal revenue, which in turn exacerbates inflation and the people’s livelihood crisis. At the same time, it triggers even more severe sanctions from the United States, further isolating Iran’s economy.

Th, it loses allies and is isolated. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz directly harms the vital interests of Arab countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE and they will inevitably participate in the U.S. sanctions action; at the same time, this action violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and it will provoke international condemnation of Iran; China and Russia, which are originally allies supporting Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear energy, may give up support for Iran because of this action In the current situation where Iran is very passive, the support of allies is very important. “A just cause enjoys abundant support, while an unjust cause finds little support.” If does so, it will be completely isolated.